Which segment will be "crowned" when the market in 2019 is forecasted to be more difficult?

Which segment will be "crowned" when the market in 2019 is forecasted to be more difficult?

Ho Chi Minh City is in the process of reviewing the approval of previous projects. Therefore, supply from projects that have completed investment preparation procedures is limited in the short term.

At the evaluation meeting of the 2019 real estate market prospects by the Vietnam Real Estate Brokerage Association (VARS) recently in Hanoi, VARS General Secretary Nguyen Van Dinh made the forecast that the first 6 months In 2019, the supply of real estate to this market is limited, not many products.

This is also true of the real situation in many large real estate enterprises in the city. Accordingly, through the exchange, enterprises said that in the first half of 2019, almost very little supply was released to the market, the main reason is that HCMC is tightening the issuance of legal procedures for investment in house projects. in.

Reports from market research companies also show that the real estate market scale has also been significantly reduced in 2018. Specifically, there are 92 future housing projects in the future with 42,991 units (including 37,502). apartment and 5,489 low-rise houses.

In which, high-end segment accounted for 25.5%, medium 45.5% and popular 29%. In 2018, there are 77 housing projects in the future with 28,316 units, the market size decreases by 34.1% compared to 2017. The high-end segment has a selling price of over VND 40 million / m2, accounting for 30% - an increase of 4.5% compared to 2017; Mid-end segment accounted for 45.3% - equivalent to 2017; The affordable segment only accounted for 24.7% - down 4.3%.

Mr. Nguyen Xuan Quang, Chairman of Nam Long Group, stated that in 2017, the market recovered and grew slightly, but in the first 10 months of 2018, the national real estate market showed signs of decline in both supply and quantity. Translate. Particularly, the market in Ho Chi Minh City has a clear sign of decline.

In particular, according to the report of Ho Chi Minh City Department of Finance, in 2018, the total revenue of HCM City domestic budget was 268,780 billion dong, reaching 100.03% and surpassing 7,000 billion dong compared to the assigned target. In which, estimated budget revenue from land is 22,600 billion dong, accounting for 9.32% of total budget revenue. In particular, the project land use fee is VND 13,868 billion, accounting for 61.3% of the total revenue from land.

Thus, compared with 2017, the amount of budget revenue from the land decreased by about VND 4,570 billion (compared to VND 27,170 billion), down 16.8%; land use fee decreased by VND 4,037 billion (compared to VND 17,905 billion), down 22.5%.

Interestingly, the amount of land owed by businesses and individuals to November 30, 2018 amounted to VND3,013 billion; The proportion of revenue from land in the total budget revenue of the city in 2018 decreased by 2.43% (from 11.75% in 2017 to 9.32% in 2018). Another concern is that state budget revenues from land use and real estate use have shown signs of slowing down, and the possibility of further decline in 2019.

Mr. Le Hoang Chau, Chairman of Ho Chi Minh City Real Estate Association (HoREA), said that the above data shows that the city real estate market has not developed sustainably. Because, the real estate market only develops sustainably when achieving reasonable product structure: The affordable housing segment accounts for the largest proportion, followed by the middle and smallest segment is the high-end segment.

According to Chau, these are very worrying signs. By the end of 2018 and through 2019, the situation of real estate investment and business in the whole country, especially Ho Chi Minh City, is still very difficult, the project is limited, many previous projects have been approved. Authorities have to "review" now, causing confusion for businesses and customers.

According to experts, some of the main causes of the decrease in the supply of projects, the supply of housing in the past and in 2019 are: Administrative institutions and legal systems have not yet most, synchronous; the working spirit of some cadres and civil servants related to real estate projects has been reduced; Administrative procedures related to real estate projects are stagnant, but first of all is the bottleneck of the procedures for approval of investment policies, approval of project investors ...

According to Mr. Pham Lam, General Director of DKRA Vietnam, Ho Chi Minh City, there are dozens of projects reviewed by state agencies on the process and procedures for implementing projects, as required by the House Audit. country. In addition, difficult legal procedures make the supply of apartments narrow.

"This may lead to a decline in the state budget revenue in 2019, because not only real estate businesses have reduced revenue and profit, reduced tax revenue, but there are also about 95 other industries with related expenses. The real estate market is also affected, "Chau added.

2955/5000

Before realizing this fact, recently, HoREA has issued a document proposing to combine and amend some contents of the Housing Law and Land Law to ensure the consistency of the legal system on "Decision determine investment policy, select investors, approve investors of housing projects "to solve bottlenecks on approving investment policies.

At the same time, the HCM City People's Committee proposed a document directing departments to remove difficulties for commercial housing projects with mixed land funds, including residential land and other types of land that need to change purpose. using land. After the Department of Planning and Investment submitted to the Ho Chi Minh City People's Committee to issue investment policy decisions, HoREA asked the City People's Committee to assign tasks to the provincial departments to implement the next administrative procedures.

Specifically, step 1, Department of Planning - Architecture received and accepted the dossier of detailed planning at the rate of 1/500, or the general plan of the project submitted by the investor to the HCMC People's Committee for approval. Step 2, Department of Construction chaired a team of experts to review and submit to the People's Committee of Ho Chi Minh City "Decision to approve investors of commercial housing projects" for housing projects intermingling residential land with agricultural land and land. nonagricultural. B

Step 3, Department of Natural Resources and Environment implements procedures to submit to Ho Chi Minh City People's Committee to issue decision to allocate project land to investors; presiding over the determination of specific land prices of commercial housing projects; coordinate with the Department of Finance to submit to the City Land Valuation Council and the HCMC People's Committee to decide the land use fee of the project. So just shorten the time, just reduce clues for businesses in the process of implementing investment projects.

However, forecasts on the real estate market in 2019, Mr. Nguyen Van Dinh said that in 2019, urban transport infrastructure will continue to be invested and developed strongly. Especially the development of roads linking suburban areas with each other, regions with the city center, etc. leads to the development of the real estate market.

"With projects eligible for sales, the supply in HCMC in 2019 is mostly in the mid-end segment, the affordable segment is scarce, especially high-end and super-premium due to the projects in The center has been reviewed and reclaimed, the price of apartments may increase slightly, the average apartments (from 55-75m2) in any segment will be the choice of many customers ", Mr. Dinh said.

The current suburban HCMC land fund is still abundant and abundant, so the supply of land for Ho Chi Minh City in 2019 continues to be stable, the price is expected to increase by 10-15% compared to 2018.

Commenting on the upcoming market trends, from the perspective of an investor, Ms. Huong Nguyen, General Director of Dai Phuc Land, made a forecast showing the trend of customers choosing apartments in the areas. The urban area is well planned, fully equipped, friendly green space, airy increase. The second is riverside projects, or artificial lakes are prioritized. The third is the 2-bedroom apartments, with an appropriate area from 55 - 78m2, with open and modern layout.

Nguyen Minh